Common problem. You are in an unusual bad mood, some extreme stress, or whatever.
You feel that it is hard to keep control. Reason also says that some things can be given up at hard times. Is it true?
A rational calculation says that the value of cheering yourself up is higher in hard times, so the revenue from something (like a high calorie snake, or other mischevious acts) is relatively high. Also the cost of holding yourself up is sometimes higher in tough times. Maybe save some of the self-control ability to more urgent current goals? *
But the "expensive" actions are of two kinds. long term costs verus short term costs.
Long term costs: Spending instead of saving, entails long term costs. For that the reason of "now it is more cost effective to spend money" maybe wise.
Short term costs: Giving up and eating some heavy food. Spending concentration ability on a computer game that only makes you immedyately less focused and much more depressed. Not sleeping on time.
All these things bear immediate costs. So in a sensitive time, their cost may actualyl go up. Getting the stupid feeling in hard times is even more costly in bad times.
Contrary to intuition, hard times is when self-control against short termish costing behavior is most important.
Bottom line. In hard times it maybe worthwhile giving up on things whose cost is long termish, since in hard times the value of seering yourself up is higher. For mischevious actions costing in the short term, the opposite. Be even more disciplined than relaxed time. Now is the time when short term costs are most costly. And life balance etc. most important.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Extreme and special cases and causes
Static vs. dynamic causes of phenomenons
Latent possible effects may always be there
Inference form extreme/artificial cases is problematic
Looking for relationships between a resulting phenomenon and various causes is very common nowadays. Part of the following is very confusing. So, turn off your logical powers, you will need them here.
Static = the "default" case. What causes things in the "usual" case: No special treatment was applied AND not for a very special group/case you have selected.
Dynamic = special cases. Extreme behaviors of one of the parameters. duefully applied intervention. Some effect was introduced that is never there in the "normal" case.
Potential = a latent effect that can be used to cause a huge (or small) effect. But when not applied it has zero effect.
An example for a latent "potential": Heart disease has various causes and surgeon knife is not one of them. But miracousely, a bypass operation can have near 100% effect on the heart state once applied. Hence, bypass surgery is a "potential" cause, that is totally absent from the causes of the static case, and strictly there in the dynamic/interevention case.
A big difference exists between what causes things in the static case, and the dynamic case.things that have zero or negligible effect in the static case may have a main effect when done on purpose to have an effect. This (1) gives hope to find - for example - effective intervention to improve happiness, but it also implies that (2) the inference form extreme cases to the average is limited. I will start with (2)
(2) The inference problem.
You cannot always infer from extreme cases to the normal case. Extreme cases may practically be different things.
Example 1. Are reshus monkeys violent (relatively) because of their genes, or because of culture? Frans de Waals has two pieces of evidence that culture plays a role. young reshus monkeys that grow up for six months mixed up with other non-violent monkeys, got used to live much less violent. Similarly, a group whose big aggresive males died, started to live peacefully for a decade, even after all males in the group were totally new (males change troops as adolescenes). This can be explained in two ways. The favorite way is that culture palys a big role in the violent behavior. I feel the more correct definition is that extreme cultural effects may change the behjavior, but I would guess that it is mainly genetic. It is only in very special cases
Example 2. The great psychologist Roy Baumeister in his book "meanings of life", says that people need their life to have value. One of the evidence is mothers that killed their babies. They show strong signs of distress for the anti-value acts they did etc.
Does it show that peolle need value in life? not at all. It only shows that extremely unjustified action carry a strong negative feeling. But it is quite possible that in the average case value does have to be there.
("need for value" may have other evidence. It is hardly the point here)
This problem is rampant with experimental and other kinds of scientific inquiry. Elegant and logicaly strong conclusions are many times exactly the kind I am condemning here. An extreme case can show minute details on how things actually work. You can iron out alternative hypotheses, and be clear of various biases and protocol problems etc.
That we have reason to choose a line of inquiry, does not eliminate its build-in problems. Truth does not work in our service. Reality never apologizes for being sonfusing and hard to decipher. Saying "that is the way to know" when you do not really know is stupid and pathetic.
(1) There may always be strong unknown potential cause.
The analisys of the static/default case does not tell us what potential causes are not being applied.
Example: Happiness research may give a gloomy feeling that we cannot improve happiness much, as half is genetic, 40% unknows, and the rest 10% are correlates we have little control of.
This is the static picture. Are there effective interventions? maybe. these shold be things not seen in the static case, but very powerful once discovered and applied in practice.
To sum up:
Static vs. dynamic causes. in default cases have one set of causes, while intervention may actually change part of the very structure of waht causes things.
Inference form extreme cases is problematic, as extreme/artificial cases may be very different in waht causes what.
Looking at static causes alone, one cannot conclude that there are no potential other causes.
Latent possible effects may always be there
Inference form extreme/artificial cases is problematic
Looking for relationships between a resulting phenomenon and various causes is very common nowadays. Part of the following is very confusing. So, turn off your logical powers, you will need them here.
Static = the "default" case. What causes things in the "usual" case: No special treatment was applied AND not for a very special group/case you have selected.
Dynamic = special cases. Extreme behaviors of one of the parameters. duefully applied intervention. Some effect was introduced that is never there in the "normal" case.
Potential = a latent effect that can be used to cause a huge (or small) effect. But when not applied it has zero effect.
An example for a latent "potential": Heart disease has various causes and surgeon knife is not one of them. But miracousely, a bypass operation can have near 100% effect on the heart state once applied. Hence, bypass surgery is a "potential" cause, that is totally absent from the causes of the static case, and strictly there in the dynamic/interevention case.
A big difference exists between what causes things in the static case, and the dynamic case.things that have zero or negligible effect in the static case may have a main effect when done on purpose to have an effect. This (1) gives hope to find - for example - effective intervention to improve happiness, but it also implies that (2) the inference form extreme cases to the average is limited. I will start with (2)
(2) The inference problem.
You cannot always infer from extreme cases to the normal case. Extreme cases may practically be different things.
Example 1. Are reshus monkeys violent (relatively) because of their genes, or because of culture? Frans de Waals has two pieces of evidence that culture plays a role. young reshus monkeys that grow up for six months mixed up with other non-violent monkeys, got used to live much less violent. Similarly, a group whose big aggresive males died, started to live peacefully for a decade, even after all males in the group were totally new (males change troops as adolescenes). This can be explained in two ways. The favorite way is that culture palys a big role in the violent behavior. I feel the more correct definition is that extreme cultural effects may change the behjavior, but I would guess that it is mainly genetic. It is only in very special cases
Example 2. The great psychologist Roy Baumeister in his book "meanings of life", says that people need their life to have value. One of the evidence is mothers that killed their babies. They show strong signs of distress for the anti-value acts they did etc.
Does it show that peolle need value in life? not at all. It only shows that extremely unjustified action carry a strong negative feeling. But it is quite possible that in the average case value does have to be there.
("need for value" may have other evidence. It is hardly the point here)
This problem is rampant with experimental and other kinds of scientific inquiry. Elegant and logicaly strong conclusions are many times exactly the kind I am condemning here. An extreme case can show minute details on how things actually work. You can iron out alternative hypotheses, and be clear of various biases and protocol problems etc.
That we have reason to choose a line of inquiry, does not eliminate its build-in problems. Truth does not work in our service. Reality never apologizes for being sonfusing and hard to decipher. Saying "that is the way to know" when you do not really know is stupid and pathetic.
(1) There may always be strong unknown potential cause.
The analisys of the static/default case does not tell us what potential causes are not being applied.
Example: Happiness research may give a gloomy feeling that we cannot improve happiness much, as half is genetic, 40% unknows, and the rest 10% are correlates we have little control of.
This is the static picture. Are there effective interventions? maybe. these shold be things not seen in the static case, but very powerful once discovered and applied in practice.
To sum up:
Static vs. dynamic causes. in default cases have one set of causes, while intervention may actually change part of the very structure of waht causes things.
Inference form extreme cases is problematic, as extreme/artificial cases may be very different in waht causes what.
Looking at static causes alone, one cannot conclude that there are no potential other causes.
Labels:
induction,
Inference,
interventions,
latent variables
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Short term is the place to look for in happiness improvement
the stable component of happiness (in ten year terms), is probably 80% genetic. This is the results of research done on identical twins (Lykken & Tellegan 1996), it accords well with research on the stable component of personality whihc is also 80%. And remember that happiness is strongly correlated with personality traits. (I do not know on any study contradicting the above data).
There maybe sophisticated ways to get around these thing. I will ignore them now.
Most of the variation in personal happiness is in the element changing over time.
Practical implication: Only invest in improving happiness at this second, this minute, or maybe this day etc. long term improvement, are on the face of it, impractical.
Intuitively speaking, improving next day mood is much easier. While "long term" stuff is kind of fantasy.
Aside from the above, there are other reasons to be short term.
1) The longer the horizon the less reliable our opinions (see Gilbert' Stumbling on Hapiness for a great read AND much interesting stuff)
2) Uncertaincy grows with time. We know so little about ten years from now, that it is simply stupid to assume knowledge and even suffer now for then.
3) Usually, the longer the horizon our expectation plans etc. are more complicated. Reliability of a chain is practically the product of the weakness of its chains, implying that long chains of causation are worthless. Reminds me the teacher telling us at age 11 "You be good boys now get accepted to a good school, be good boys then, get accepted to a good college, then you will get a good wife and have a happy life". I was so young, but felt that going throught life that way is utterly stupid. Not just stupid, uttrly dtupid!
There maybe sophisticated ways to get around these thing. I will ignore them now.
Most of the variation in personal happiness is in the element changing over time.
Practical implication: Only invest in improving happiness at this second, this minute, or maybe this day etc. long term improvement, are on the face of it, impractical.
Intuitively speaking, improving next day mood is much easier. While "long term" stuff is kind of fantasy.
Aside from the above, there are other reasons to be short term.
1) The longer the horizon the less reliable our opinions (see Gilbert' Stumbling on Hapiness for a great read AND much interesting stuff)
2) Uncertaincy grows with time. We know so little about ten years from now, that it is simply stupid to assume knowledge and even suffer now for then.
3) Usually, the longer the horizon our expectation plans etc. are more complicated. Reliability of a chain is practically the product of the weakness of its chains, implying that long chains of causation are worthless. Reminds me the teacher telling us at age 11 "You be good boys now get accepted to a good school, be good boys then, get accepted to a good college, then you will get a good wife and have a happy life". I was so young, but felt that going throught life that way is utterly stupid. Not just stupid, uttrly dtupid!
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Interdisciplinary need. Happiness, economics, and decision making
I have some impression that sometimes, happiness researchers and economists just live in two different worlds. Different languages assumptions etc.
The sad part is that much of the happiness research is not adopted by policy makers, because economists have much more power. But also that the language differs so much.
It touches on:
Convincing, as some happiness research is not conducted the way to "force" the conclusionson skeptics.
Usefulness, as it is hard for psychologists to offer practical economic advice etc. + considering reality of markets etc.
Good heart. The value gaop is sometimes quite high. And psychologists talking on values, life etc. can hardly sound rational to an economist ear. There is enough strong data that would convince even the most cynical "maximizer" economist about stuff. But once "nice" words enter the discussion some start feeling strange.
An interdisciplinary center is very needed to integrate psychological hard proved findings with practical and theoretical maximization principles of economics etc. etc. as well as considering the practical (various intersts, dynamics etc.) forces in the way of positive change. Decision making perspective is also criucial whenever things relate to real persons making decisions.
A conference integrating the parties, would also help. provided it is with the purpose of mutual learning and cooperations as mentioned above.
The sad part is that much of the happiness research is not adopted by policy makers, because economists have much more power. But also that the language differs so much.
It touches on:
Convincing, as some happiness research is not conducted the way to "force" the conclusionson skeptics.
Usefulness, as it is hard for psychologists to offer practical economic advice etc. + considering reality of markets etc.
Good heart. The value gaop is sometimes quite high. And psychologists talking on values, life etc. can hardly sound rational to an economist ear. There is enough strong data that would convince even the most cynical "maximizer" economist about stuff. But once "nice" words enter the discussion some start feeling strange.
An interdisciplinary center is very needed to integrate psychological hard proved findings with practical and theoretical maximization principles of economics etc. etc. as well as considering the practical (various intersts, dynamics etc.) forces in the way of positive change. Decision making perspective is also criucial whenever things relate to real persons making decisions.
A conference integrating the parties, would also help. provided it is with the purpose of mutual learning and cooperations as mentioned above.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
trouble gets superimposed on us. Why? Any escape?
I was running to the airport dragging my bags, somewhatg suffering along the way, but totally consumed in this bad feeling of the bags the hurry and the train.
I was amazed. How come that all of me has only one thing in my being at this moment. Is this baggage dragging (with ailing bag wheels, for sure) all there is in my world?
I tried to make a little thinking into other things, totally unsuccessfully.
Wonders:
1) why is it so consuming? (some fight-flight comes to mind. Or that body is what counts cf. Damasio. Only reflective reactions here.)
2) Can we do something about it? Idea etc.? Below I tell what I did, but what counts is whether there are essential ways to feel better in such situations.
I tried to do meditationm along the way (it helped a little), and technical triocks like escaping the queue while others save my place and going for a walk.)
Very essential point, since muhc of our lives is dominated by such stuff and other things that fall broadly under a similar point.
I was amazed. How come that all of me has only one thing in my being at this moment. Is this baggage dragging (with ailing bag wheels, for sure) all there is in my world?
I tried to make a little thinking into other things, totally unsuccessfully.
Wonders:
1) why is it so consuming? (some fight-flight comes to mind. Or that body is what counts cf. Damasio. Only reflective reactions here.)
2) Can we do something about it? Idea etc.? Below I tell what I did, but what counts is whether there are essential ways to feel better in such situations.
I tried to do meditationm along the way (it helped a little), and technical triocks like escaping the queue while others save my place and going for a walk.)
Very essential point, since muhc of our lives is dominated by such stuff and other things that fall broadly under a similar point.
Content of mind. the flexibility
I woke up in the morning like a rat I jump to the computer some emails etc. etc. and my mind is there. Fixed of the things I were reading there. They are small incosequential and uninteresting things. But there they stay filling my mind. I even do not remember what was in my mind before that.
the content of our mind is so influenced by outside influence or by things we do and look after just by sheer impulse. But it is many times a big waste, of mind of energy and of life.
the content of our mind is so influenced by outside influence or by things we do and look after just by sheer impulse. But it is many times a big waste, of mind of energy and of life.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
do people pursue happiness seriousely?
It feels at times that people's way of going throught life is not like they are trying to maximize happiness.
Sure, people try to feel better and have various lovely things. But they are laso running after a whole bunch of things that do not look like happiness maximizing. If you start talking to people on the street about happiness you will find that while in theory they value it, in practice it does not stay in their mind, and does not alway gets "due" weight in decisions.
Several explanations are possible. but this is not the point here.
If people actually prefer some other things to happiness, or if they do not have it in highest priority, shoudl we try to convince them about this? can we say that happiness is most important when people do not think so?
Sure, people try to feel better and have various lovely things. But they are laso running after a whole bunch of things that do not look like happiness maximizing. If you start talking to people on the street about happiness you will find that while in theory they value it, in practice it does not stay in their mind, and does not alway gets "due" weight in decisions.
Several explanations are possible. but this is not the point here.
If people actually prefer some other things to happiness, or if they do not have it in highest priority, shoudl we try to convince them about this? can we say that happiness is most important when people do not think so?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)